WASHINGTON, July 10 — A brewing “Super” El Niño cycle is poised to unleash heat waves, floods and drought worldwide, with the effects amplified by long term human-caused climate change.

But what if it was possible to interrupt and effectively “switch off” the Pacific Ocean heating phenomenon as it starts to form?

That’s the premise of a new Science Advances study published Wednesday, which uses computer models to show that artificially brightening clouds over the Pacific, when timed right, could neutralize the influential weather pattern and blunt its worst impacts.

While previous research on so-called geoengineering has focused on cooling the planet as a whole, the new paper instead proposes more targeted interventions.

“These shorter timescales of interventions could be a very powerful way that geoengineering enters this portfolio of responses to climate change,” lead author Jessica Wan, a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Chicago, told AFP.

Prior research had shown that the “Black Summer” bushfires that scorched Australia in 2019–2020 played a key role in creating a multi-year La Niña, the cool phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle.

As smoke particles entered the clouds, they set off chain reactions that actually made the clouds brighter, bouncing more of the Sun’s energy back to space.

Motivated by this “natural experiment,” Wan and her colleagues wondered whether solar geoengineering could achieve a similar effect.

They used a powerful forecasting model to gauge what impact artificial marine cloud brightening over a vast rectangular zone in the equatorial Pacific would have had on the 1997–1998 and 2015–16 El Niño events.

This could theoretically be achieved by using ships fitted with nozzles that spray sea salt into the lower atmosphere.

El Niños are linked with warming sea surfaces in the eastern tropical Pacific, with knock on effects globally including drier conditions and drought in Australia, wetter winters in East Africa, and warmer overall global temperatures.

After running several simulations, they found the intervention worked best when started early –  in June – and continued through the following February.

“But the reason people would ever care about this is not temperature in a box in the Pacific, but how the impacts translate over land,” said Wan.

Extreme weather events linked to El Niño have caused loss of life and trillions of dollars of economic damage.

The modeled cloud brightening reversed most of the temperature and precipitation effects — those areas that got warmer under an El Niño were cooler, regions that got wetter instead became drier, and vice versa.

So what’s the catch?

Unknown consequences 

For starters, the technology isn’t yet ready.

Teams around the world are developing the nozzles to spray sea salt into the sky, but the devices can’t yet shoot nearly enough volume. Even if a nozzle is perfected, it would take roughly 2,400 ships to make the required impact.

Beyond the engineering challenges, there are further risks.

Not all regions of the world would benefit from reversing El Niño conditions, and the models showed unintended consequences, including warming over Europe and Asia.

“The other catch I would say is that we didn’t look at long-term impacts,” said Wan, including what would happen if marine cloud brightening was used repeatedly to suppress El Niños.

Geoengineering has many detractors, who argue it creates a moral hazard by giving polluters a free pass to keep emitting if the climate can be artificially cooled. Wan disagrees.

“We’re beyond the point now where we could just turn off emissions today and be totally fine, we’re locked into warming already, and so the way that I viewed geoengineering is ‘how can we reduce the worst of those impacts while we work on a long-term solution?’” she said.

“I think it would be irresponsible to not do the research, given that’s the context we’re in.” — AFP

KUALA LUMPUR: Jabatan Meteorologi Malaysia (MetMalaysia) mengeluarkan nasihat berkaitan Taufan Bavi yang dikesan berada pada kira-kira 1,896 kilometer (km) di timur laut Sandakan, Sabah.

MetMalaysia dalam kenyataan hari ini memaklumkan taufan itu kini berada pada kedudukan kira-kira 1,151 km di tenggara Taipei, Taiwan.

Berdasarkan pencerapan pada 8 pagi, taufan itu bergerak ke arah barat barat laut dengan kelajuan 20 kilometer sejam (km/j) dan berpotensi mencapai kelajuan maksimum 185 km/j.

Bagaimanapun, MetMalaysia memaklumkan taufan itu tidak memberi kesan signifikan terhadap Malaysia. – BERNAMA

IPOH: Genting Malaysia Berhad (Genting Malaysia) menghulurkan sumbangan sebanyak RM1 juta bagi membantu 554 mangsa ribut di sekitar Bercham di sini pada 19 Jun lalu.

Menurut Ahli Dewan Undangan Negeri (ADUN) Bercham, Ong Boon Piow, sumbangan itu bukan sekadar melibatkan kawasan kediaman tetapi kedai dan rumah ibadat.

“Senarai (mangsa) kami masih teliti sekali lagi sebab ada nama yang sama (bertindan). Sebab kita tidak pasti mangsa memiliki banyak rumah.

“Kalau dia punya tiga rumah (mangsa) rosak, kita pun kena adil jugalah bagi bantuan satu rumah sahaja,” katanya kepada pemberita di Kampung Baru Bercham di sini hari ini.

Program penyampaian cek cura itu turut dihadiri oleh Naib Presiden Eksekutif Jualan, Pemasaran dan Perhubungan Awam Genting Malaysia, Spencer Lee.

Boon Piow berkata, 98 peratus mangsa yang terjejas telah pulang ke kediaman masing-masing.

“Banyak pertubuhan bukan kerajaan (NGO), kontraktor dan syarikat tertentu telah memberi bantuan seperti membaiki rumah semua selain atap dan bumbung dengan harga kos.

“Selain itu, McDonald’s Malaysia ada bagi burger dan ada pihak bagi roti kepada pasukan penyelamat. Namun usaha Genting Malaysia jadi satu contoh apabila malapetaka, bencana alam berlaku terus menyalurkan bantuan, menghulurkan tangan,” katanya. 

Bagi Spencer Lee, sumbangan itu berbentuk tanggungjawab sosial korporat (CSR) kepada mereka yang memerlukan pertolongan dengan kerjasama kerajaan.

Dianggarkan RM1.2 juta nilai kerugian yang dialami oleh para penduduk di sekitar Bercham ekoran kejadian ribut tersebut. – UTUSAN

DUNGUN: "Angin kencang melanda secara tiba-tiba sehingga menerbangkan atap rumah. Saya yang ketakutan hanya mampu melaungkan azan dan terus berlari keluar untuk menyelamatkan cucu. Syukur, kedua-dua cucu sudah diselamatkan oleh anak saya."

Detik cemas itu dikongsikan Nordin Sulong, 72, antara mangsa insiden ribut yang merosakkan 73 rumah di FELDA Kerteh Dua dan FELDA Kerteh Tiga, dekat sini, semalam.

Nordin berkata, kejadian berlaku kira-kira jam 3.50 petang ketika beliau sedang membaca al-Quran di dalam sebuah bilik, manakala dua anak dan dua cucunya berada di ruang tamu.

"Ketika itu, hujan renyai-renyai sebelum bumbung rumah tiba-tiba bergegar diikuti beberapa keping atap tercabut diterbangkan angin kencang," katanya ketika ditemui di kediaman beliau di FELDA Kerteh Dua.

Seorang lagi mangsa, Roshaida Mat, 38, berkata beliau bersama dua anak, bapa, dua anak saudara, seorang adik serta dua rakan anaknya sedang berada di dalam rumah ketika ribut melanda.

Beliau berkata, mereka sangat cemas dan takut apabila sebahagian atap rumahnya diterbangkan angin.

"Kejadian berlaku dengan sangat pantas. Kami semua berlari masuk ke dalam bilik dan tempat selamat bagi mengelak kejadian tidak diingini," katanya.

Sementara itu Pengarah FELDA Wilayah Terengganu, Shahruddin Ab Rahman, berkata badai ribut itu menyebabkan 68 rumah rosak di FELDA Kerteh 2, selain tiga lagi di FELDA Kerteh 3.

Beliau berkata, kebanyakan kerosakan dilapor membabitkan atap kediaman penduduk.

"Pihak kami sedang membuat bancian untuk menilai kerosakan dialami rumah peneroka terbabit sebelum tindakan baik pulih dilakukan.

"Mangsa akan dipertimbangkan untuk menerima bantuan maksimum RM10,000 untuk membaiki kediaman bergantung pada tahap kerosakan," katanya.

Selain itu, beliau berkata, Yayasan Felda turut menyalurkan sumbangan bakul makanan serta bantuan persekolahan kepada anak dan cucu peneroka yang terjejas.

"Peneroka yang mencarum pelan Takaful MyFire Plus juga layak menerima pampasan," katanya.