The west coast of Peninsular Malaysia is expected to be hit by thunderstorms and flash floods, especially urban areas such as Kuala Lumpur, with the arrival of the inter-monsoon season next month.

As the northeast monsoon season reaches the tail end, the inter-monsoon period typically follows in April and May before the southwest monsoon cycle begins in June.

Climatologist Prof Dr Fredolin Tangang said the southwest monsoon will bring dry and hot weather and possibly hazy skies, especially if forest fires break out not only within the country but also in the south of Sumatra and Kalimantan.

“As we progress into the rest of March and the next few months, the Madden-julian Oscillation (MJO) and Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation (Bsiso) could exert their impact on weather and short-term climatic conditions of either dry and hot or wet conditions depending on the phases of these phenomena.

“We will also face the equinox on March 21.

“Without sufficient cloud cover, the equinox can increase incoming solar radiation and surface heat absorption. This can also drive heat waves if it is present during the suppressed convection phase of MJO,” said Tangang, who is a fellow of the Academy of Sciences Malaysia.

MJO is a tropical weather pattern that moves eastward around the globe, bringing alternating periods of rainfall and dry conditions every 30 to 60 days.

Quite similar to MJO is Bsiso, which is specifically active during the Northern Hemisphere summer between May and October.

It consists of 30 to 90-day oscillations that move northward and eastward, affecting South-east Asian monsoons and weather patterns.

Tangang said according to the Apec Climate Centre, there is a 70% likelihood of temperature in the region to be above normal for the rest of the year, which is possibly driven by global warming and rising greenhouse gases concentration.

Sultan Mizan Antarctic

Research Foundation climatologist and meteorological expert Prof Datuk Dr Azizan Abu Samah said with the country currently undergoing La Nina weather conditions, cloudy skies are shielding against solar radiation and keeping temperatures lower.

“This means the radiation is evaporating water instead of being transformed into heat and raising the surface temperature.

“Hence, we may not see temperatures as high as 40ºc as that recorded in Chuping (Perlis) in the past under the El Nino phenomenon,” he said.

On concerns of water levels at dams during the southwest monsoon season, Azizan said as rain increases by up to 20% during La Nina, supply should be sufficient.

“However, water conservation and educating the public to be less wasteful is a good thing to promote. Some figures report that Malaysia’s per capita consumption of water is about 230 litres per day while Singapore’s is about 150 litres per day.

“We can also have more rain harvesting for industries that consume large amounts of water. To encourage conservation and recycling, we may need to consider the unpopular option of increasing water tariffs,” he said.