LOS ANGELES, April 12 — New reports on seasonal outlooks from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Centre and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts have spotted an important warming signal that, if it strengthens, could have powerful repercussions on Southern California and worldwide, reported Xinhua.

Forecasters say ocean heat building along the equator today could set the stage for an unusually strong El Nino later this year, a climate pattern that US agency says could tilt the odds toward wetter, stormier weather in Southern California and other parts of the West, and send ripple effects that could impact the Atlantic Ocean hurricane season and weather systems as far-flung as South-east Asia.

The agency defines El Nino and La Nina as opposite phases of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, and El Nino tends to shift the winter storm track south, raising the chances of wetter-than-normal conditions in Southern California, while La Nina often nudges storms north, increasing the odds of drier stretches.

For Southern Californians, the biggest concern is not one rainy day but repeated high-intensity storms that El Nino can bring, which can overwhelm drainage systems and oversaturate arid slopes. The California Coastal Commission warns that wildfire burn scars and dry, steep terrain can collapse quickly, sending mud, rocks and vegetation tumbling downhill onto unsuspecting communities below, while deep offshore storms can drive dangerous surf and cause beach and cliff erosion.

In past El Nino events, rain has alternated between soaking storms and long dry breaks, a swing that can also complicate wildfire planning depending on timing.

When El Nino pushes into the strongest category, “it’s essentially the upper echelon of El Nino events,” Jonathan O’Brien, a meteorologist with the US Forest Service, told the Los Angeles Times.

What that means for Southern California, according to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), is that strong El Nino events raise sea levels and increase extreme precipitation, leading to coastal flooding and inland flood risks along California’s coast.

The California Geological Survey also warns that El Nino winters can result in above normal precipitation in Southern California, leading to increased mudslides, road-blocking landslides and catastrophic debris flow activity, following heavy El Nino rainfall.

Beyond California, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) says El Nino significantly impacts weather systems around the globe when warmer Pacific waters release heat into the atmosphere, shifting jet streams and storm tracks, altering atmospheric circulation over the western Pacific, weakening the Walker Circulation and shifting patterns of convection in ways that can influence East and Southeast Asian monsoon systems.

With months to go before winter, for safety’s sake, public officials are urging Southern California to brace for stormy weather by reviewing evacuation plans for areas below recent burn scars, keeping sandbags and emergency supplies ready, and clearing drains.

Forecasters will continue to track Pacific temperatures and winds for signs El Nino is strengthening, and whether it will reach the rare “super” territory that can seriously amplify extremes. — Bernama-Xinhua

PETALING JAYA – Malaysia kini memasuki fasa peralihan monsun yang aktif dengan jangkaan  cuaca berada dalam keadaan lebih lembap untuk tempoh seminggu ke hadapan khususnya di barat dan pendalaman Semenanjung.

Beliau berkata, langkah persediaan awal adalah sangat penting memandangkan perubahan cuaca ini boleh menggalakkan kejadian hujan lebat dan angin kencang dalam tempoh yang singkat.

“Keadaan ini sedikit sebanyak membantu mengurangkan cuaca panas yang kita rasai sebelum ini. Namun, beberapa kawasan di utara dan pedalaman Semenanjung masih berpotensi mengalami suhu yang lebih tinggi,” katanya menerusi hantaran di Facebook hari ini.

Menurutnya lagi, beliau turut bimbang terhadap paras air empangan di Johor dan Melaka yang masih berada pada tahap membimbangkan berikutan taburan hujan yang tidak sekata sejak kebelakangan ini.

Susulan itu, Operasi Pembenihan Awan (OPA) akan dilaksanakan tertakluk kepada keadaan atmosfera yang sesuai bagi meningkatkan semula taburan hujan di kawasan tadahan yang kritikal.

“Bagi Johor dan Melaka, pola cuaca dijangka melibatkan hujan dan ribut petir pada waktu pagi, petang dan malam bergantung kepada lokasi, dan ini memerlukan kesiapsiagaan semua pihak.

KUALA LUMPUR, April 12 — The public is advised to remain vigilant as the country enters an active monsoon transition phase, which is expected to bring more humid weather over the coming week.

Deputy Prime Minister Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi said based on forecasts by the Malaysian Meteorological Department (MetMalaysia), weather conditions are likely to include thunderstorms and heavy rain in most areas, particularly in the western and inland parts of peninsular Malaysia, including Johor and Melaka, as well as inland Sabah and Sarawak.

He said the weather changes would help ease the recent hot conditions, although some northern and inland areas of the peninsula may still experience higher temperatures.

“At the same time, we must remain vigilant as these conditions could bring heavy rain, strong winds and thunderstorms within a short period,” he said in a Facebook post.

Ahmad Zahid, who is also chairman of the National Disaster Management Committee, said Johor and Melaka are expected to experience rain and thunderstorms in the morning, afternoon and evening depending on location, requiring continuous preparedness from all parties.

The Deputy Prime Minister also expressed concern over dam water levels in both states, which remain at worrying levels due to uneven rainfall distribution in recent times.

He said cloud seeding operations would be carried out subject to suitable atmospheric conditions to increase rainfall in critical water catchment areas.

“Insya-Allah, we will continue to monitor the situation and take the best possible measures to ensure the well-being of the people and the sustainability of water supply,” he said. — Bernama

KUALA LUMPUR, April 12 — Thunderstorms, coupled with heavy rains and strong winds are expected nationwide until 5pm today, the Malaysian Meteorological Department (MetMalaysia) warned in a weather alert this afternoon.

Affected areas include Kedah (Baling, Kulim), Perak (Larut, Matang and Selama, Kuala Kangsar, Kinta, Kampar, Batang Padang and Muallim), and Pahang (Cameron Highlands, Lipis, Raub, Bentong, Bera and Rompin).

Selangor (Hulu Selangor, Gombak and Hulu Langat), Kuala Lumpur, Negeri Sembilan (Jelebu, Kuala Pilah and Jempol) and Johor (Segamat, Kluang, Mersing and Kota Tinggi) are also expected to be affected.

In Sarawak, the warning covers Kuching, Serian, Samarahan, Sri Aman, Betong, Sarikei, Sibu, Mukah and Bintulu.

In Sabah, the affected areas include the interior districts of Sipitang, Tenom, Beaufort and Tambunan, the west coast areas of Papar, Putatan, Penampang, Tuaran, Ranau and Kota Belud, as well as Tawau, Sandakan and Kudat.

MetMalaysia said the warning is issued when thunderstorms are detected or expected to produce rainfall exceeding 20mm per hour, lasting more than an hour.

It added that such warnings are short-term alerts, valid for no more than six hours for each issuance.