IT IS still too early to determine whether Malaysia will face disruptions to water supply or agriculture despite forecasts of a stronger El Niño later this year.

National Disaster Management Agency (NADMA) DG Meor Ismail Meor Akim said current projections remain long-range forecasts and government agencies will continue refining their preparations as weather models become more accurate over the coming months.

“Six-month forecasts are still projections. The closer we get, the more accurate the data will be,” he said during a media engagement today.

Meor Ismail said climate forecasts become progressively more reliable over shorter periods, including three months, one month, one week and several days before an event.

He added that any decision on specific mitigation measures would depend on updated forecasts closer to the expected impact period.

At the same time, he said Malaysia would first have to manage the Northeast Monsoon at the end of the year before the delayed effects of El Niño are expected to become more apparent early next year.

“By then, we will actually be in the Northeast Monsoon, which is the rainy season. So we are preparing for the Northeast Monsoon first, not just El Niño,” he said.

Nonetheless, he said agencies are focusing on preparedness by coordinating resources, monitoring weather developments and strengthening inter-agency response plans.

Preparations will continue to be adjusted according to updated forecasts issued by the Malaysian Meteorological Department and other technical agencies over the coming months.